Elections of the Country of the Sacred Heart

In the June 20th ballotage, Mr. Juan Manuel Santos was elected as the new President of Colombia. His win of 9 million votes supported his call for a political alliance between traditional and opposition leaders: the ‘Great Agreement of National Unity’.

Mr Santos, of the Social Party of National Unity (Partido de la U), not only triumphed in votes over his main electoral contender Mr Antanas Mockus from the Green Party (Partido Verde), but also agglomerated an estimated 80% of the Colombian Congress. These two figures are demonstrative of the strong support that Mr Santos received from the majority of the Colombian electorate. With the responsibilities that characterises such possession of power and no precedents in Colombia’s democratic history, such support will be invaluable to Mr Santos’ presidential post.

In the first round of elections held on May 30th, Mr Santos was the surprise candidate emerging with double the votes over his main contender, the former mayor of Bogotá, Mr Mockus. Almost leading the polls before the first round, Mr Mockus had a strong chance to upset the expected winner, Mr. Santos. With a strong following from younger voters and an active Internet campaign (his Facebook group has 700,000 members), his surprise campaign was known by the Colombian media as ‘The Green Wave’. However, on the announcement of Mr Santos’s win in the first electoral round with a difference of 3.7 million votes, the ‘Green Wave’ reached breaking point. Mr Mockus’ weaknesses as a candidate were most present during the televised electoral debates in which Mr Santos held steady while Mr. Mockus seemed idealistic, naive, and had a few gaffes that his opponent was able to exploit.

In pursuing his personal commitment to become President of Colombia, Mr Santos has occupied high positions in both the public and private sectors, holding prestigious positions such as Minister of Trade, Finance and Defence. As Minister of Defence, Mr Santos commanded two of the most remarkable operations in Colombia’s military history: Jaque and Fénix. Both gave him enough political credibility to succeed President Álvaro Uribe Vélez despite the numerous human rights scandals during his tenure including the supplanted civilian deaths counted as ‘terrorists’. He has also had full support from President Uribe and his party.

The vote for Mr. Santos largely reflects popular support for the policies that President Uribe had established during his two terms as president. Most important amongst these is his ‘mano dura’ (iron fist) policy approach towards the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC, its acronym in Spanish)- one of the main obstacles to peace and security in Colombian society. According to the Crisis Group’s policy briefing ‘Improving Security Policy in Colombia’, Mr Santos’ main challenge is to ‘increase the country’s law enforcement and military capability against all illegal armed groups’. Considering that ‘FARC’s command and control structure has not collapsed, this has, and will, prove to be one of the greatest political challenges. As a result, it is expected that the ideological alignment of the new government of Colombia will be focused on a more centrist approach towards pragmatic political values.

Although Operation Fénix gave Mr Santos a significant boost to his national popularity, it had the opposite effect at a regional level. The military attack that took place in Ecuadorean territory, perpetrated by Colombian Armed Forces, lead to a diplomatic crisis that remains unresolved. A local Ecuadorean judge continues to speak out against Mr Santos’ demand for extradition of guerrillas in the region. Quito has declared that this is an independent decision of the Ecuadorean judicial branch. This military incursion has also been used frequently by President Chávez of Venezuela to make pejorative statements against Mr Santos during the electoral process in Colombia. However, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is willing to attend to Mr Santos possession as President of Colombia on August 7th and President Chávez of Venezuela is has voiced the possibility of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Posted on July 15, 2010

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