The truth behind an old enduring myth about a Chinese character illustrates well the lesson to be learned. It is often said that the Chinese word for “crisis” is made up of the characters for “danger” and “opportunity.” Several notable politicians seem to have an imprecisely informed impulse to wedge this little anecdote of “Far Eastern” wisdom anywhere it fits. John F. Kennedy popularized the trope in 1958. Al Gore, Condoleeza Rice and Richard Nixon have also used it. I have never understood why politicians, pundits and China scholars alike insist on assigning this particular form of optimism to the Chinese people.
While the first part of the word crisis, wei, does mean “danger”, the second part of the word, ji, can be used to make up the word “opportunity”, as in ji hui, but on its own, ji actually means “machine”.
Ji, meaning “machine” and not “opportunity” perhaps reveals more about China’s response to crisis -- environmental crisis in this case. As the iconic image of the industrial revolution, machines and the rethinking of technology might just be the answer for a changing climate. Indeed, China’s response has gone beyond the amorphous, feel-good phase of “opportunity” and has identified exactly what the opportunity behind the crisis really is: the reincarnation of machines, this time for a green revolution.
Ten years ago, China was a country, which at the highest levels of government, believed climate change was a hoax, created by the Western world to undermine Chinese growth and development. Today, China is a world leader in renewable energy, electric vehicles, fuel economy standards and public transportation. China has said that it will install 10,000 megawatts of solar power capacity by 2020 and 10 gigawatts of wind power by next year. While it is true that China is still building two coal-fired power plants a week, it is also true that each hour, China installs 1 megawatt of wind power capacity.
China is also the only country in the world that is establishing the foundation for an all-electric and hybrid vehicle industry on a mass-market scale. China will be able to make 500,000 electric vehicles per year by 2011. According to a study by Dr. Feng An for the International Council on Clean Transportation, passenger vehicles made in China in 2010 must achieve a fuel efficiency of 36 miles per gallon in a US CAFÉ test cycle equivalent. (Full disclosure: Dr. An is my boss). If that same car were made in the US it would be required to get just 27.5 mpg under Obama’s regulations. By 2015, all passenger cars made in China must achieve more than the equivalent of 40 mpg in fuel efficiency, well beyond the US target. China has 20 high-speed rail lines currently in operation that can accommodate trains that go over 200 kilometers per hour. Three of those lines have trains that go over 300 kilometers per hour. By 2012, China will have 35 high-speed rail lines. In the United States, we just have one high speed rail – the Amtrak Acela, which runs from Boston to Washington DC at an average speed of just 110 kilometers per hour.
The China-US relationship regarding green technology is often characterized as a competitive race in the style of the US-USSR space race of the 1980s. While there may be competitive aspects within specific industries, overall the relationship must be cooperative. There is a clear role for each nation: the US can draw on its innovative capacity and China can draw on its production capacity to bring new green technology to scale. Right now countries in Africa and Southeast Asia cannot afford the green technology that is manufactured in the US and Europe. Just as it did for iPods and sweat pants, China can bring the price of green technology down so other developing countries can buy it. The world, in short, needs green technology available at the "China price" but can't do it with out innovative leadership of the US.
While President Obama is visiting China, I hope he has a chance to see and absorb China’s truly impressive achievements. In his tour, Obama has an opportunity but it is also an obligation. And it is time for Obama to identify what the opportunity is and translate it into action. While traveling in China and meeting CEOs of wind and solar power and electric car companies, NGO activists and students who participated in the Green Long March, these events should nurture the innate courage he already has to lead the world on climate change. China’s progress in developing green technology should nudge the US to take leadership on policy, which will spur the innovation needed to develop meaningful US-China cooperation on climate change solutions.
Posted on November 16, 2009
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